Dopo aver analizzato le statistiche generali ed in particolare quelle home/away, come abbiamo visto nello scorso articolo, passiamo ad analizzare gli incontri simili
Stiamo andando sempre più a sviscerare dati per la formulazione di un pronostico e l’individuazione di una value bet.
L’analisi si va a fare sempre più particolareggiata in quanto, dopo aver analizzato gli stati di forma delle squadre, nonché le statistiche generali e quelle casa/trasferta, vogliamo andare sempre più nello specifico rivolgendo il nostro sguardo agli incontri simili.
Avemmo già modo di dire che per incontri simili intendo quelle partite che hanno o potrebbero avere delle analogie con l’evento che stiamo valutando.
In particolare, utilizzo due modi per individuare tali gare:
1) andando a vedere come si è comportata la squadra A quando ha affrontato squadre che navigano nella stessa zona di classifica della squadra B;
2) andando a ricercare le quote simili. In questo modo, infatti, valuteremo gli eventi nell’ottica del bookmaker che li valuta, appunto, simili.
Al solito, un esempio potrà chiarire meglio le idee.
Come per le altre occasioni, utilizziamo una partita che dovrà ancora disputarsi al fine di studiarla sotto questo punto di vista.
La Premier League ci piace proprio e, quindi, peschiamo ancora in Inghilterra il nostro esempio. Prendiamo la partita di Sabato 4 Febbraio 2017, tra Everton e Bournemouth.
Al solito, riportiamo le attuale quote dei segni 1X2, al fine di valutare se si è in presenza di value bet:
Premesso che ci sono sempre da considerare prima fattori già spiegati negli articoli precedenti, in questa sede ci interessa individuare il rendimento delle due squadre sia contro avversari che si trovano più sopra in classifica che più in basso, rispettivamente quando la squadra di casa ha giocato in casa e quando la squadra ospite ha giocato in trasferta.
Un’immagine chiarirà meglio quanto detto:
Poniamo l’attenzione sulle ultime due colonne di destra, contrassegnate in alto dalle lettere H (Home) ed A (Away).
In verde sono segnate le partite vinte, in giallo quelle pareggiate ed in rosso quelle perse.
Ad occhio, si nota già un buon rendimento interno dell’Everton.
Poiché il Bournemouth si trova più in basso, guardiamo come si è comportato l’Everton in casa quando ha ospitato squadre con meno punti: le partite disputate sono 6 di cui 4 vinte e due pareggiate.
In particolare, poi, analizziamo quando ha ospitato squadre che si trovano più o meno nella stessa posizione di classifica del Bournemouth, diciamo distanziate al massimo di 3-4 punti sia in eccesso che in difetto: il Bournemouth si trova a 26 punti e l’Everton ha già ospitato Stoke, West Ham e Southampton che si trovano rispettivamente a 28, 28 e 27, squadre che rientrano, quindi, in questa forbice di punti e contro le quali l’Everton ha sempre vinto.
Una domanda davvero importante da farsi a questo punto è: in che stato di forma si trovava l’Everton quando ha affrontato tali squadre? Ed in che condizioni si trovavano tali squadre quando hanno affrontato l’Everton?
Ciò per andare ad avvalorare oppure sminuire il peso di tali vittorie.
Ad esempio, è curioso notare come la vittoria contro il West Ham sia stata l’unica in un periodo di crisi durato 10 partite e fatto, appunto, di una vittoria, quattro pareggi e cinque sconfitte (pareggi, tra l’altro con Swansea e Crystal Palace, ossia squadre che si trovano più in basso del Bournemouth); West Ham che arrivava a quella sfida da due vittorie consecutive ma che poi non ha vinto per sei gare (la gara con l’Everton ha rappresentato, di fatto, l’inizio di una crisi).
Le altre due considerate, invece, ossia Stoke e Southampton, sono arrivate entrambe in buoni periodi di forma dei padroni di casa.
Lo Stoke, al contrario era in piena crisi di inizio stagione (veniva già da una sconfitta e dopo l’Everton ne sono seguite altre due).
Stessa cosa dicasi per il Southampton che ha perso cinque delle ultime sei gare tra cui proprio quella con l’Everton.
Un’ultima osservazione è da fare, poi, al rendimento solo in trasferta di queste squadre.
In questa speciale classifica, notiamo come il Bournemouth abbia fatto peggio delle squadre prese finora come riferimento, quindi Crystal Palace, Stoke, West Ham, Swansea e Southampton.
Un Everton, quindi, che non ha difficoltà in casa se è in forma e se l’avversario si trova più in basso in classifica ma che può inciampare anche con le “piccole” (ma di queste piccole, qualcuna in trasferta va anche bene come appunto il Crystal Palace) se attraversa periodi negativi (e quello attuale non è affatto negativo).
Guardiamo ora il Bournemouth in trasferta:
S’è già visto che è una delle peggiori squadre lontana dalle mura amiche ed in particolare ha disputato sette gare con squadre più in alto in classifica: 5 sconfitte, un pareggio ed una vittoria.
Di queste 7 gare, quelle che possiamo paragonare alla prossima sfida contro l’Everton sono le partite contro il City e contro il Burnley, le squadre più vicine all’Everton già affrontate dal Bournemouth in trasferta; tra l’altro, nella speciale classifica dei rendimenti interni, l’Everton è a pari punti proprio con il City mentre il Burnley è sopra entrambe (chi l’avrebbe detto ad Agosto!), come dimostra l’immagine:
Come prima, anche per gli ospiti ci chiediamo qual era il loro stato di forma nonché quello dei padroni di casa, quando ha giocato e perso con le squadre appena menzionate: la sconfitta contro il City è capitata nel miglior momento stagionale, fatto di 7 gare con, appunto, una sola sconfitta, intervallata da due risultati utili precedenti e ben quattro successivi.
Ma il City, in quel periodo, le stava vincendo tutte.
Altra storia contro il Burnley che in quel periodo era in crisi nera: veniva da tre sconfitte a cui poi ne sono seguite altre due dopo il successo contro il Bournemouth.
Ospiti che erano in discreta forma avendo battuto, sempre in casa, sia il Liverpool (prima) che il Leicester (dopo).
In definitiva, quindi, il Bournemouth pare una squadra che, a prescindere sia dal suo stato di forma che da quello degli ospiti raccoglie davvero poco e niente in trasferta.
Qui è difficile fare dei calcoli numerici poiché, s’è visto, le partite da considerare non sono moltissime ed, inoltre, c’è da tenere presente come si trovavano le squadre all’epoca degli incontri.
Tuttavia, un confronto quota può essere effettuato in questo modo:
Probabilità che l’Everton vinca =
[(Vittorie Everton in casa contro squadre più in basso in classifica + Sconfitte Bournemouth in trasferta contro squadre più in alto in classifica)/(totale partite Everton in casa vs squadre più in basso in classifica + totale partite Bournemouth in trasferta vs squadre più in alto in classifica)] x 100
[(4+5)/(6+9)] x 100 = (9/15) x 100 = 56,25%
Convertiamo la percentuale in quota = 1/0,5625 = @1,77
Il bookmaker, quindi, in base a tali piccoli calcoli (che, ripeto, devono necessariamente essere integrati con altre valutazioni!) si sta mantenendo in linea con quella che è la quota appena individuata.
Ciò significa che la quota non rappresenta una value bet poiché non è superiore a quella da noi calcolata ma che, comunque, rappresenta allo stesso tempo anche il pronostico più probabile di sortita, sempre se volessimo considerare solo ed esclusivamente tale parametro.
Un secondo approccio come detto riguarda le quote simili.
Allo stesso modo, si andranno ad individuare quelle partite che, grosso modo, hanno le quote come quelle attuali e si effettueranno le medesime valutazioni appena fatte.
Anche per questo articolo è davvero tutto ed io ti do appuntamento al prossimo dove parleremo di come analizzare gol fatti e subiti.
Rimani sempre aggiornato sui nostri articoli e pronostici: seguici su Instagram e unisciti al nostro canale Telegram!
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