
Concludiamo gli articoli di Scuola di Betting che riguardano la valutazione degli elementi per la realizzazione di un pronostico.
Già negli ultimi articoli s’è parlato degli elementi che abbiamo definito come “minori” per la valutazione di un evento.
Nell’articolo odierno, raggruppiamo altri elementi che, a seconda della situazione, potremmo definire come importanti o poco importanti.
Partiamo dalle assenze/infortuni. Le assenze vanno necessariamente contestualizzate per numerosi motivi.
Proviamo ad elencarli:
1) non tutti i giocatori di una squadra hanno il medesimo peso all’interno della squadra stessa;
2) molto dipende dallo stile di gioco dell’allenatore: se egli è bravo a dare un’idea di gioco alla squadra, le assenze potranno essere più o meno determinanti mentre se basa il suo gioco in funzione di alcuni giocatori “chiave”, allora l’assenza sarà sicuramente più importante e determinante;
3) è importante anche sapere se le assenze sono fresche o datate: nel primo caso, infatti, esse rappresenteranno una vera incognita da ben valutare nell’analisi di un pronostico, mentre nel secondo caso è molto probabile che la squadra abbia, per così dire, assorbito l’assenza del giocatore.
In generale, nell’ottica della valutazione di un pronostico, assenze di giocatori chiave in difesa avvaloreranno l’idea di un segno GOL o di un OVER. Contrariamente, assenze importanti in attacco potranno essere fondamentali nel pronosticare un NO GOL o un UNDER.
Un altro elemento spesso considerato dagli scommettitori riguarda le condizioni climatiche. Ci si chiede, infatti, se esso può influenzare davvero l’esito delle partite e le previsioni degli scommettitori. La mia personale risposta è: sì!
In particolare, è probabilmente la pioggia il fenomeno atmosferico che più di tutti può influenzare un risultato. Essa, infatti, rende il terreno scivoloso e, di conseguenza, rende più veloce lo scivolamento della palla. Una condizione direi favorevole a quelle squadre che prediligono il gioco “palla a terra” od il cosidetto “tiki-taka” di scuola spagnola.
Se, però, la pioggia dovesse essere talmente battente da rendere il terreno pesante, ecco che potrebbero essere avvantaggiate quelle squadre che fanno della fisicità il loro punto di forza, contrariamente a quelle più tecniche.
Senza contare che la pioggia ed il conseguente terreno potrebbero causare problemi ai portieri soprattutto dai tiri dalla distanza, sempre difficili da neutralizzare in casi come questi. Per cui, anche il fattore pioggia può essere determinante a seconda delle caratteristiche delle squadre e, più in generale, per pronosticare partite da OVER o da GOL.
Anche il vento potrebbe penalizzare quelle squadre che fanno, ad esempio, dei lanci lunghi la loro tattica favorita.
Analizziamo anche il fattore riguardante i precedenti storici. Sorrido quando alcuni scommettitori fanno la loro analisi in questo modo: gli ultimi 5 precedenti tra le squadre hanno sempre visto l’esito OVER, quindi è OVER!
Ovviamente, un pronostico non si può basare solo ed esclusivamente sui precedenti storici. Personalmente bado molto poco a tale fattore in quanto nelle partite precedenti, le condizioni e le variabili in gioco erano differenti!
Quindi, si può considerare tale fattore più che altro per un discorso di ritardi statistici e di cabala ma non certo come fattore determinante.
Diverso è, invece, se il precedente vede coinvolti gli stessi giocatori e gli stessi allenatori. In quel caso ha sicuramente più peso che non un precedente riferito a 2-3 anni prima.
Ultimo fattore che voglio qui riportare è il fattore motivazionale.
Per molti scommettitori vale il seguente assioma: la squadra A deve vincere assolutamente! Quindi vincerà!
Il più delle volte ciò non accade. Personalmente non sono troppo incline nel dare i cosiddetti “pronostici motivazionali”. Anche perché, ricordiamo noi tutti episodi in cui squadre che non avevano nulla da perdere hanno poi infranto i sogni di gloria di squadre dalle maggiori motivazioni: penso alla “Fatal Verona” per il Milan, all’infinito pomeriggio di Perugia – Juventus che costò il tricolore ai bianconeri od al Lazio – Inter 4-2 con Ronaldo in lacrime.
Spero di averti dato qualche spunto di riflessione in quest’articolo fatto più che altro da pareri soggettivi e sicuramente opinabili.
Termina anche la serie di articoli dedicati a come elaborare un pronostico. Dal prossimo, affronteremo il discorso sul Money Management, ossia sul come gestire la cassa quando si scommette. Vedremo le tecniche più utilizzate e soprattutto impareremo a gestire fogli excel quali il Masaniello ed il Roserpina.
Rimani sempre aggiornato sui nostri articoli e pronostici: seguici su Instagram e unisciti al nostro canale Telegram!
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