Abbiamo iniziato a parlare nello scorso articolo di Money Management, ossia di gestione della cassa con riferimento alle scommesse.

Ora introduciamo uno dei metodi più utilizzati dagli scommettitori, vale a dire il Masaniello.

Che cos’è il Masaniello?

Il Masaniello è un foglio excel creato da Massimo Mondò e Ciro Masaniello il cui obiettivo è porre un freno all’emotività connessa al gioco d’azzardo attraverso la gestione razionale della cassa.

Nel Masaniello si decidono a priori alcuni parametri; questi sono:

– la cassa iniziale (bankroll);

– il numero totale degli eventi;

– il numero degli eventi da indovinare;

– la quota media di riferimento.

In base a tali parametri, l’algoritmo ci calcolerà il guadagno totale nonché lo stake relativo ad ogni giocata. In pratica, ci dirà quanto scommettere.

Qualora la resa non ci soddisfi, possiamo andare a modulare i diversi parametri per raggiungere quella desiderata. E vedremo quale sarà quella ideale.

Come accennato, il vantaggio principale del Masaniello è frenare l’emotività dello scommettitore al fine di ottimizzare le sue giocate attraverso lo stake guidato. Inoltre, è consentito anche modificare i suoi parametri in corsa se le cose non dovessero andare per il verso giusto; infine, c’è anche l’eventualità di non dover necessariamente giocare e vincere tutti gli eventi programmati se le cose dovessero andar bene sin dall’inizio.

Per contro, se le prime giocate dovessero risultare perdenti, c’è il rischio che venga giocato troppo stake negli step successivi, col pericolo emotivo che salga l’ansia e la paura di perdere tutto il bankroll. Per tale motivo è bene sempre considerare di mettere in ballo cifre che, se perse, non ci creino particolari problemi economici.

Un altro svantaggio è l’impossibilità di giocare eventi che si svolgono in contemporanea. Vi è, però, la possibilità di aprire più Masanielli e avere più gestioni separate.

So che molti di voi che stanno leggendo l’articolo conoscono il Masaniello e forse queste parole di presentazione vi sono sembrate già conosciute, scontate e banali. Parliamo, quindi, ora del vero problema che affligge tutti coloro che utilizzano il Masaniello, ossia:

come impostare correttamente il Masaniello?

Beh, diciamo che non c’è una formula precisa poiché le variabili da considerare sono tante, tra tutte la diversa propensione di ognuno di noi al rischio.

In generale mi sento sicuro di poter considerare alcuni punti fermi:

– il Masaniello dovrebbe avere un numero di eventi tale da poter far fronte alle cosiddette “bad run”, ossia periodi negativi caratterizzati da eventi persi consecutivamente;

– deve tener conto dell’abilità dello scommettitore nel pronosticare: quindi, prima di iniziare un Masaniello, sarebbe opportuno che si testasse tale abilità con un campione di eventi abbastanza ampio;

– deve tener conto della quota media da giocare poiché in base ad essa potremo regolare gli eventi da indovinare.

Quest’ultimo punto è di estrema importanza! Vediamo il perché.

Come tutti voi ormai sapete, le quote assegnate dai bookmakers agli eventi esprimono la loro probabilità di sortita. Ciò significa che se io decido di giocare eventi con quota media @2,00, la matematica mi dice che è probabile che all’incirca la metà degli stessi potrebbero essere indovinati.

Poniamo l’esempio che io voglia impostare un Masaniello con 30 eventi di quota media @2,00. Per il ragionamento appena fatto, è presumibile pensare che 15 di questi potranno essere indovinati. 

Da ciò deduciamo che il limite di eventi da indovinare, al di sopra del quale non dovremmo mai osare, ci è dato proprio dalla matematica ed è uguale alla percentuale espressa dalla quota media. 

Come detto, prima di ciò è bene testare le proprie capacità bettistiche e se qualcuno si ritiene davvero un bravo tipster può anche andare oltre e tentare di indovinare una percentuale di eventi maggiori; ma ricordiamoci che, a quel punto, i nemici da battere sono due: prima i bookmakers e poi la matematica!

Dovremmo, inoltre, giocare sempre in modo responsabile e soprattutto prudente. Per cui, sarebbe opportuno cercare di indovinare una percentuale di eventi minore di quella espressa dalla quota media; in generale, è consigliabile diminuire tale percentuale di almeno un buon 10%/15% per ripararsi da brutte sorprese.

Vediamo quale sarebbe la nostra resa applicando tali accorgimenti.

Abbiamo quindi detto:

– 30 eventi;

– quota media @2,00;

– eventi da indovinare: il 35% di 30 ossia 10,5, arrotondato ad 11.

Con tali parametri, la nostra resa è del 5,19%. Qualcuno di voi potrà pensare che sia una resa bassa. Eppure:

– chiediamoci quanti prodotti finanziari al giorno d’oggi siano in grado di offrirci un rendimento simile;

– ricordiamoci che il 95% degli scommettitori va sempre in perdita alla fine della stagione bettistica;

– teniamo presente che i migliori tipster hanno uno Yield annuo di circa il 10%: quindi sii umile e vola basso;

– potrai reinvestire quanto precedentemente guadagnato e quindi mettere in ballo una cassa maggiorata con il Masaniello successivo.

In base all’ultimo punto, consideriamo una stagione bettistica. Si parte il 1° Agosto con 1000 €.
Dopo il primo Masaniello abbiamo accumulato una cassa di 1051,9 € che rimettiamo in gioco.
Al termine del secondo avremo 1051,9 + 54,59 = 1106,49 €.
E procedendo sempre, ossia reinvestendo nel Masaniello successivo quanto accumulato nel precedente, ci troveremmo al decimo Masaniello (ipotizziamo quello di Maggio) con una cassa di 1658,61 €!

Davvero niente male se consideriamo che potremmo avere questo risultato con un numero di eventi persi anche maggiore rispetto a quelli vinti.

Se invece saremo bravi a chiudere i masanielli senza utilizzare tutti gli eventi a disposizione, potremo anche giocarne di più di 10 nel periodo considerato e, quindi, aumentare il guadagno finale.

Insomma, ci sono più motivi per considerare valido un rendimento del 5% circa che non per non considerarlo tale.

L’ottica, quindi, deve essere quella di affrontare un lungo periodo con il principio della prudenza. Cercare di vincere tanto e presto porta spesso a risultati catastrofici.

Termino qui l’articolo ricordandoti che nel prossimo parleremo del Roserpina, altro metodo di Money Management.

Rimani sempre aggiornato sui nostri articoli e pronostici: seguici su Instagram e unisciti al nostro canale Telegram!

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