Buona norma di ogni tipster che si rispetti è tenere un archivio delle proprie scommesse nonché calcolare periodicamente il proprio yield.

Nel nostro piccolo, anche noi di Bettinglife lo facciamo e te ne abbiamo dato conto nell’articolo dedicato al nostro storico vincite.

Qualcuno di voi ci ha chiesto: che cos’è lo yield? Che cosa indica lo yield? Come si calcola lo yield?

Bene, sono tutti concetti che vogliamo meglio spiegare nel presente articolo.

Che cos’è lo Yield?

Lo Yield è un numero, espresso in percentuale, che vuole rappresentare il grado di successo di un determinato numero di scommesse, di una strategia o di un periodo di gioco.

Cosa indica lo Yield?

Lo Yield indica la resa, quindi l’effettiva efficienza delle nostre giocate, della nostra strategia o del nostro periodo di riferimento.

Non è detto che uno Yield maggiore di un altro indichi un’efficienza migliore poiché ogni risultato va interpretato e deve tener conto di altre variabili che vedremo in seguito.

Come si calcola lo Yield?

Per calcolare lo yield è sufficiente la seguente operazione matematica che tutti noi siamo in grado di compiere: 

YIELD = [(Totale unità incassate – Totale unità giocate)/Totale unità giocate] x 100%

da cui: 

YIELD = [Totale unità guadagnate/Totale unità giocate] x 100%

Riportiamo un esempio che ci chiarirà meglio il concetto.

Ipotizzando una cassa di 1000 unità, decidiamo di puntare 50 unità per ogni scommessa, piazzata rigorosamente in singola: quindi il 5% del nostro bankroll (ma se non hai ancora un tuo metodo ben definito ti consigliamo di abbassare lo stake e non giocare oltre il 2% della cassa).

Giochiamo, nell’arco di una stagione, 118 scommesse per un totale di 5900 unità giocate.

Ipotizziamo di incassare 7400 unità.

Ne consegue che le unità guadagnate (quindi il “gain”) sono: 7400 – 5900 = 1500.

Quindi: [1500/5900] x 100 = 0,2542 x 100 = 25,42%

Cosa si può dire di tale risultato?

Beh, se si considera che i maggiori tipster professionisti hanno uno yield compreso tra il 5% ed il 15%, potremmo affermare che si tratta di un gran risultato!

Ma bisogna andarci cauti con i facili ottimismi e non trarre conclusioni affrettate senza aver prima snocciolato altri numeri.

Come accennavamo in precedenza, infatti, nella valutazione dello yield rientrano anche altre variabili. Le più importanti sono:

– il numero degli eventi giocati;

– il volume di unità giocate;

– la quota media;

– il contesto (ad esempio i campionati di riferimento od anche il confronto con altri tipster che operano nelle medesime condizioni);

– il tempo di osservazione.

In particolare, maggiore sarà il numero delle giocate e, quindi, più lungo il tempo d’osservazione e più veritiero sarà il dato di riferimento.

Diresti, infatti, che uno scommettitore che ha ottenuto il 20% di yield con appena 10 scommesse è migliore di un altro tipster che è arrivato al 5% di yield con 1000 scommesse?

Assolutamente no, sarebbe sbagliato affermarlo!

Questo perché col passare del tempo, lo yield tende a crescere in misura men che proporzionale e scende velocemente con le scommesse perse nei periodi negativi. Mantenere, quindi, per un anno intero o per un numero molto alto di tips uno yield del 20% sarebbe davvero impresa ardua!

Sempre riguardo il 25,42% dell’esempio, è evidente che è un dato a cui ci si potrebbe arrivare con un numero minore di tips giocate ma dalla quota media più alta e con un volume di unità minore oppure con un numero di scommesse maggiore, di quota media minore ma con un alto volume di unità investite. Ecco perché, quindi, ogni risultato ottenuto va contestualizzato.

In definitiva, si può affermare che lo Yield è altamente influenzato sia dal numero di tips giocate sia dall’arco temporale di riferimento: per poter giudicare l’operato di un tipster, quindi, è evidente che il riferimento temporale minimo da prendere in considerazione è almeno una stagione calcistica in quanto è normale nell’arco della stagione stessa incappare in alcune mensilità chiuse in negativo.

Riguardo il numero di tips, i migliori scommettitori riescono a fornire 20-30 pronostici di qualità al mese in periodi di palinsesti “normali” (campionati + coppe).

Quindi, apri gli occhi e, se non sei tu di persona a sviluppare i pronostici, segui solo tipster che possano dimostrarti dati alla mano la bontà del loro lavoro, evitando millantatori che vantano vincite improbabili o, peggio ancora, che chiedono soldi od affiliazioni per farti avere le loro multiple (che puntualmente perderai ora per un gol, ora per una quotina sbagliata, eccetera).

Ricorda che una cosa è la singola vincita, altra cosa è il guadagno! La vincita è episodica e fortunosa, il guadagno è del lungo periodo ed è ottenuto metodicamente!

Rimani sempre aggiornato sui nostri articoli e pronostici: seguici su Instagram e unisciti al nostro canale Telegram!

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