Ti sei mai chiesto come effettuare la copertura di una scommessa?

Abbiamo parlato già in altre occasioni della copertura di una scommessa.

In particolare, abbiamo dedicato un intero articolo al DRAW NO BET, che ci permette di effettuare la parziale copertura di una scommessa in pre-match – ma che non ci esclude, quindi, la perdita della puntata – ed avevamo accennato all’argomento copertura anche nello scorso articolo, quando parlammo di scommesse in early.

Capiremo adesso, come procedere ad effettuare le coperture che ci permetteranno IN OGNI CASO di vincere o, male che vada, a rientrare completamente con la puntata effettuata.

Partiamo dall’esempio più comune, ossia quello di una schedina.

Spesso capita di sentire l’amico dire: “Ma guarda, ho perso la bolletta di 1000 € soltanto perché ho sbagliato una partita!”.

Decisamente una delle frasi più comuni degli scommettitori.

Cerchiamo di capire quando è possibile vincere matematicamente una bolletta tramite la copertura.

Iniziamo col dire che la condizione essenziale, ed anche la più conveniente percorribile, affinché si possa coprire una bolletta è che rimanga una sola partita in gioco.

Esempio: gioco una multipla di quota 50, fatta di 10 partite, con puntata di 5 € e vincita potenziale di 250 €.

Indovino le nove partite che si giocano nel pomeriggio e mi manca solo il posticipo serale.

A questo punto mi trovo ad un bivio e devo decidere se rischiare, quindi non effettuare la copertura e cercare di vincere interamente le 250 €, oppure rinunciare ad una parte della vincita e vincere sicuramente di meno.

Nel caso in cui prevalga in noi la prudenza, cosa che dovrebbe sempre accadere al fine di giocare consapevolmente, dobbiamo procedere al seguente calcolo:

Importo da giocare sulla copertura = vincita potenziale / quota del segno opposto a quello giocato dell’unica partita mancante.

Quindi, se ad esempio abbiamo giocato il segno 1 di Roma – SPAL di quota 1,30, dobbiamo giocare in singola il segno X2 quotato 3,43.

Per fare ciò allora: 250 / 3,43 = 73 €

Sia che la Roma vinca, perda o pareggi, sarò sicuro al 100% di incassare le 250 €.

Il guadagno netto naturalmente sarà minore e sarà uguale a: 250 – 5 – 73 = 172

Una somma niente male se pensiamo che il nostro investimento iniziale è stato di 5 € e che sarà guadagnata in modo sicuro.

Il caso della doppia chance esterna, poi, può essere anche suddiviso in due giocate separate, una sulla X ed una sul 2.

Procederemo sempre nello stesso modo: 250 / 5,30 (quota della X) = 47 € e 250 / 9,80 (quota del 2) = 26 €

Qualcuno potrà dire: “Cosa cambia? La somma totale spesa sarà sempre di 78 €”.

In questo caso è vero ma è anche vero che per questo esempio abbiamo utilizzato sempre lo stesso bookmaker quindi era inevitabile che l’importo speso per la copertura, sia con la doppia chance, sia con i due segni separati, fosse sempre lo stesso.

Effettuando le due giocate separate, però, potremmo scegliere i bookmakers che ci offrono le quote X e 2 più alte e, quindi, risparmiare eventualmente qualcosa, aumentando il nostro guadagno finale.

È evidente che più alte saranno le quote da coprire, minore sarà la somma da dedicare alla copertura e, quindi, più alto sarà il guadagno totale.

Un altro esempio di copertura riguarda le giocate live.

Ammettiamo di aver giocato 20 € sul segno 1 dell’Inter contro il Milan ad una quota di 2,00: la vincita potenziale è quindi di 20 x 2,00 = 40 €.

Ipotizziamo che l’Inter vada in vantaggio: a quel punto, la quota live dell’1 inevitabilmente scenderà e, di conseguenza, quella dell’X2 salirà.

Ammettiamo che dopo il gol, l’1 sia sceso ad 1,50 e l’X2, partito da 1,90, salga anch’esso fino a quota 2,50.

Potrò coprire la mia scommessa iniziale, giocando il segno X2. E di preciso quanto dovrò giocare?

Dovendo coprire solo la puntata iniziale, giocherò esattamente l’importo che moltiplicato per la quota – che abbiamo detto in questo caso essere salita a 2,50 – mi dà lo stesso importo giocato in partenza.

Per calcolarlo, procederò in questo modo:

giocata iniziale / quota del segno da coprire = importo da giocare per la copertura

Nel nostro caso: 20 / 2,50 = 8 €

Quindi, nel caso in cui l’Inter vinca, il mio guadagno totale sarà dato da: vincita lorda – puntata iniziale – puntata copertura = 40 – 20 – 8 = 12 €

Se il Milan riuscirà a pareggiare o vincere, avrò recuperato esattamente la puntata iniziale di 20 € ed avrò chiuso in pari.

Molto dipenderà, poi, dall’esperienza dello scommettitore nello scegliere il momento adatto in cui coprire il risultato al fine di massimizzare il guadagno finale.

Rimani sempre aggiornato sui nostri articoli e pronostici: seguici su Instagram e unisciti al nostro canale Telegram!

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